NEW YORK (AP) -- Americans may have poured money back into stocks this year, but market watchers worry that they aren't spending enough on other things -- like clothes, cars and computers. This week, the average U.S. consumer returns to the spotlight. The Commerce Department reports on May personal spending and incomes on Friday, the same day that the University of Michigan reports on June consumer sentiment.Recent data has shown that Americans' confidence is climbing but their spending is still lagging. Personal spending has fallen for eight of the past 10 months. Consumers are the primary driver of U.S. economic growth, and if their spending doesn't rebound, the market can't, either. ''If you take a quick snapshot here, the consumer is still looking to pay down debt, increase their savings, and curtail their consumption,'' said Joseph V. Battipaglia, a market strategist at Stifel Nicolaus & Co.
Let me make this clear--the markets and banks went nuts loaning consumers money for mortgages, consumer good, durable good, and so on; everybody went gaga over every new and scary and generally unnecessary innovation like IPHONES; people are so leveraged it's bizarre and bankruptcy works great for GM and Chrysler, but not so great for the guy who has a wife needing surgery, no insurance and has just gotten a 60 day notice that he's losing his job so paying his maxed out credit cards is not a solution anymore AND THEY ARE WORRIED BECAUSE US POOR BASTARDS AREN'T BUYING CRAP AT THE SAME RATE?I'm thinking that one reason inflation isn't a concern for the FED lies in the fact that the only people who are really feeling the stimulus at the moment are involved in banking and investing. Hell, my boss who is significantly well-paid for which I have no problems since he has now worked his ass off sufficiently for the benefit of GINORMOUS DEFENSE CONTRACTOR that he has none left and is working on his left leg recently got a note that he was eligible to "defer income." He asked me what that meant, and I said it means you can agree to let them hold on to some of your money for several years until after you've retired. "Why would I want to do that?" Well, baseball players and other athletes do it. Ken Griffey deferred a lot of his income with Cinncinati and Seattle, for example, so that they could have more cash to spend on other players. "Ken Griffey? What the hell does that have to do with me?" Nothing; however, this isn't really for you. You won't really see a lot of benefits, except that you'll probably pay lower taxes after you retire. It really makes sense for the big boys...the Sector Presidents and their direct reports, and the top end at CORPORATE. "Fuck 'em."
The AXE is fairly frustrated with it all. I was thinking about a new car, and discovered that I didn't really want to spend the extra cash. Seems my current car was a rental before I bought it and was in an accident in Hawaii. I bought it from a company that doesn't exist anymore. They didn't disclose the accident, and as a result, after three years and paying extra each month as well as having a decent interest rate and a reasonable down payment, the people I talked to about a two year old Bullit Mustang GT were trying to get the price for the 2009 model from me and shorting me on the trade-in. I'm still upside down on the current car...and, they are eager to rip me off on the "new" car. Fuck 'em. Car runs fine. Some body work, a tuneup when do, headers and an upgraded cooling system and maybe a tank of nitrous in the trunk, and it'll be wonderful. And, cost me a lot less in anger, frustration and erosion of my income.
I'm not buying as many books, get all my music from XM and Rhapsody as opposed to buying it, and am doing damn all except paying bills. I expect a lot of Americans are in the same way. If not, we're dumb.
What they have done to us is not unlike what Lillith did to Niles Crane...taken away all our liquidity and beaten us. Now, they want us come back. Unfortunately, most of us do not have a Daphne to run off with, and she was crazy anyway...Sorry, most of us are not going to run off to COSTCO for giant bottles of capers.
If consumers are going to be the main driver in the US economy, we need to get money in the hands of the folks who are not in the Investment-Class top 5% level. We need to find radical solutions to get more money in the hands of the class that consumes responsibly. Anybody who's current on their mortgage and pays less than 31% of their income for housing, for example but is upside down. In other words, consumers who didn't leverage themselves that badly. People who used to make money and then their jobs died. Put them to work, and not at McDonalds. People who are facing or have been run over by bankruptcy because of medical bills. Instead, the bulk of the consumer money is going to those who can't do math; the one's who didn't balance their checkbooks. And, this is after the bankers and the financial types have skimmed a lot off the top. Populism can turn ugly...altruistic and principled as I like to portray myself, I'm getting angry as I wonder "where's mine?" I'm not hurting yet, but..."Where's mine?"
Damn right, I'm not spending a lot of disposable income. Neither will a lot of people. We're too worried about being disposed. Here's a thought -- allow incomes under $500K to deduct consumer interest. Allow incomes under $500K to take a tax credit, not a deduction, on mortgages that are upside down. And, fuck the banks, the financial sector, and the other rip-off artists that have thrived since Reagan rode in one his fucking Palomino and delusions. Fuck 'em.
dang, i was hoping this post was gonna be about a sandwich.
Posted by: el serracho | 21 June 2009 at 12:43 PM
Hot damn man - thanks a million for that Robben Ford post and hie version of the Work Song. Robben knows how great the Butterfield Blues Band with Mike Bloomfield. He is to be respected for that alone.
Posted by: pitman | 01 July 2009 at 04:57 PM