"I'd like to have the faith to believe...but, I have thoughts. And thoughts can really fuck up the whole faith thing...just ask any Catholic priest." -- Lewis Black
Spouse decided to go off to San Diego for the day to some Women's Group Diabetes thingee...and had to leave at 5:30. AM. So, after dropping her off, I wandered over to the central hub of the Center of Opportunity, went to Starbucks and got a sandwich and a cup of coffee, and paid entirely too much for it. However, it'll taste excellent later...
However, before going back to the rack, there are a few things that might help others. Think of it as Crusader AXE's way of sharing wisdom that keeps him up at night pondering...
Why is deflation a bad thing? As I was passing the gas station I use most often, I saw that gas is now well below half what it was in September. Yea! Fuck the oil companies! USAUSAUSA! Well, it doesn't quite work that way. Think of the money supply as a star, as the sun so to speak. Ideally it's dynamically doing it's whole continuous nuclear reaction thing, but in a steady state providing energy that, at least at our distance from the center, supports life. However, if the sun starts to grow, to become a supernova, bad things can happen. That's inflation. Inflation is good if you have a lot of debt, because it takes less work to pay off the debt. There's a fine line between unsupportable inflation and supportable, in fact, desireable inflation. Growth requires some small level of inflation; T-bills, for example, pay their holders based on an estimate -- the old marketplace thing -- of the cost of inflation over the life of the bond and the "liquidity" premium -- how much you could have made investing the money elsewhere, or how much fun you could have had spending it. If I invest in a $10K note, my risk is minimal if not non-existent; however, the US government is paying rent, as it were, on the ability to hold my money. If the maket thinks the inflation rate is going to be high, the inflation premium and the liquidity premium will be higher; if lower, then lower. Well, as people flee the stock market for bonds, the price of bonds is bid
down...it costs less and less for the government to borrow, or to "rent" your money, because you have fewer or fewer desireable alternatives. You may be unwilling to invest in Starbucks stock, for example; and, you are less willing to spend the discretionary money for two lattes and a goat cheese/portobello mushroom sandwich every day. Starbucks has to lower it's prices to keep sales up enough to support it's financial structures -- supplies, wages, debt and dividends -- but can't lower it too much. Suppliers are the first to be squeezed; then wages rapidly stagnate if not decline; there are efforts to renegotiate debt, either having some of it forgiven or to drastically lower rates; and shareholders suffer because earnings are lower. If runaway inflation is the sun going super nova, think of runaway deflation as the star becoming a black hole...
Bubbles and crashes are examples of isolated sectors -- internet, housing, tulip bulbs -- going nova or becoming black holes. Sustainable growth in the economy avoids bubbles and crashes. However, that means human beings avoid greed, speculation and stupidity. There's no difference in someone making $50K a year buying a house for no money down and a negative equity than the same person going to Vegas and putting it all on black at a roulette wheel...odds initially are probably a lot better, so long as you get in early in the bubble than at the tail end, but the principle is the same. In casino terms, you're betting on the come in craps, and it's a sucker bet.
Sarah Palin and the turkey. As far as I can see, everybody is the loser on this one except the turkey she pardoned...and even then, I have to wonder, what happened to the Turkey? Did they release it to the wild? Turn the dogs on it? Or, was it killed and processed after the photo op? I think the "oh, let's do this in front of the killing floor, that's some local Alaska color" indicates the utter lack of any situational awareness on the part of the woman and her team...which at this point must be the First Dude and Levi... And, as Mudflats points out, she lies too. As for the media and the reaction of those of us who were shocked, shocked that turkey day requires killing the goddamn things, well, our adopted brother IOZ nails the hypocrisy. I must say though, Palin really appears to be Tiffany incarnate...clueless, oblivious, not all that bright, and incredibly self-centered.
If I'm wrong about the existence of God, is that really a bad thing? Or, if Christians and Jews are right, is that a good thing? Lewis Black put it better than I can...Hey Abraham, bring your kid, we'll barbecue him!
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