Afghanistan is a whole 'nother country, and it's not Texas. The weather varies from hot and dry to wet and rainy to "MOTHERFUCKER, IT"S MOTHERFUCKING COLD, MOTHERFUCKER. The terrain is largely vertical. And the bad guys are a lot more ferocious than the bad guys in Iraq. So, if there are 30 thousand combat and direct support types on the ground, there are going to be a lot of indirect support types keeping them fed, watered, healthy and supplied. The ratio is smaller than it used to be, but it'll probably be 2:3 grunts/supporters.
That said, is this enough to win? Well, somebody needs to define win. Good luck with that...the win was going to be getting bin Laden. It's now morphed into something undefined, perhaps indefinable. And, Mr. Nuanced Civility is going to try to measure up to the MacArthur "the Corps...the Corps...the Corps" tradition. An old friend of mine from Europe had been a cadet at West Point at the time they filmed Gregory Peck doing that speech, and he said that people were in tears and the enthusiasm of the applause and everything associated with it was incredible. Well, this will be a bit more complex...
Now, lest anyone think I'm implying that the cadets at West Point aren't bright, you are obviously not getting it. They're incredibly bright. As a senior NCO, I preferred dealing with West Pointers as opposed to ROTC types most of the time, although the tail end of my career was spent largely with ROTC -educated logisticians. The are lots of dumbasses in uniform, just as there are in all fields. And, the automatic Republicanism of the corps is not something that can be counted on. I suspect at the moment most soldiers are moderate conservatives and the corps probably mirrors that. Since there are no Republican moderate conservatives, most of them are probably classifying themselves as Independents.
No, if Obama sat down with a bunch of First Class Cadets, seniors as it were, and discussed his vision and plans, they'd get it. They might not agree with it, but they'd get it. In this case, he's going to be addressing the nation, using the Corps as props. I resent using soldiers as props. The nation is fucked up enough that there are 20% of the people who think Sister"Gosh darn it, I'm special, not as special as Trig, but I'm still special enough to be President!" is fit for office. Hell, 15% of the people in the country supposedly approve of Mitch McConnell. Town hall rally types oppose federal health care at the same time as they draw Medicare. There are a fair amount of people in this country who are dumbasses...and, then there are those who are entirely too bright. They'll want more nuance, and more nuance...trigger points and firewalls.
Whether this is enough really depends on the Afghans. Given their track record, the AXE is not sanguine about this policy, or that policy, or any other policy. Define victory -- if it's Jeffersonian democracy and the establishment of a branch campus of Mount Holy Oak in Khandahar, it's not going to happen. If it's a somewhat restrained narco-kleptocracy, well, that's possible. It's also what they had after Russia pulled out before the Taliban took over. What would have been victory was the capture of bin Laden and the boys, although I personally would have preferred they all died. We'll see how this turns out.
So what is victory? What are the Afghans going to do? Obama owes the cadets, who will largely be fighting there, and the rest of us a definition and a reasonable expectation of a thus defined success. I suspect that we're headed for victory lite. That's the best anyone has ever done in that hellhole.