Saalam a li taecum, Twitshit. Now get the fuck out of our desert!
What is Twitshit de la Dweeb's nickname for King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia? Actually, I never wondered about it before but given his penchant for that, I wouldn't be surprised if was "Froggie..." and Abdullah does look a bit like a repulsed, gay fat frog in white bed sheet... If he's using one for the King at the moment, it's probably Motherfucker. Which leads us to the issue before me, the problem of leverage.
You know, you only have leverage in a symbiotic relationship where you both have the need for each other. As soon as that mutual need evaporates or is forgotten the leverage decreases and things can quickly turn to shit.
Crusader AXE has been spending a lot of his copious free
time that he should be spending doing something of merit working through
negotiations with the union for a new contract. The nice thing about the
Crossroads of Opportunity is that there are no goddamn jobs to be had in the
sort of volume to make a strike a real credible threat. We’d hire replacement
workers and they know it. Being on a federal installation, they’d have to
picket out in the middle of the goddamn desert, where there’s nothing but
creosote, tortoises and rattlesnakes. So, the threat of a strike is empty. We
can screw around as long as everybody wants to with the negotiations, but the
facts are facts – the economy is in a shambles, costs are through the roof and
the pay raises will average out to about 3% over the life of the contract. Life
is unfair.
Now, at one time unions had leverage. If they had a strike,
they could draw unemployment. The unions had big hunks of money for strike
funds so people could keep going. The members were tied to the union, and no
one would cross the picket line. Then, in 1968, the unions forgot who their
buddy was and largely so Jimmy Hoffa could get a pardon, the unions supported
no one, Nixon or paid only lip service to Humphrey, who was a stalwart in the cause
of industrial democracy and unions. The election of 1968 was as critical as the election is this year in what happens to the country, and the unions took a pass. The Teamsters basically made a permanent alliance with
the Republicans, who fucked them over at every turn. Of course, they knew they were
getting into bed with a snake and should not be surprised that the bastard bit them. Thirteen years later, Reagan does in the Air Traffic Controllers and the lights start to really go out in union halls. In 1968, union members were easily 30% of the
workforce, and probably closer to 50% of the blue collar workforce. Today, they
are maybe 12% of the workforce. They have no leverage. They wasted it forty
years ago.
Now, earlier this week we got the word that one segment of
our workforce wants to bargain separately. Their reasoning is that they can’t
get what they want because they are too small a segment in the population. They
figure if they can get their own contract, they’ll have leverage.
Problem is, we have a non-union subcontractor that will
gladly pick up the work if they were to strike. We’ve already got them getting
people with the necessary endorsements to their license. So our employees may
think that they’re special, and in the eyes of the Judeo-Christian God they
are. Since, however, that the singularity that’s responsible for every thing is
an overweight teenage girl named Tiffany who can’t get a date, they are really
just toys. They have no leverage.
The reason I’m thinking about this problem is fairly simple.
I was looking at the headlines in the Wall Street Journal and saw this gem and
had to keep reading simply because it was entirely too obvious:
Saudi Arabian leaders made clear Friday they see no reason to increase oil production until their customers demand it, apparently rebuffing President Bush amid soaring U.S.gasoline prices.Meanwhile, the Energy Department said it won't enter into new contracts for the previously planned fill of the nation's crude stockpile under a royalty program. The action follows a sharp rebuke from Congress earlier this week, with both chambers overwhelmingly voting to force the Bush Administration to stop filling the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. During Mr. Bush's second personal appeal this year to King Abdullah, Saudi officials stuck to their position that they are already meeting demand, the president's national security adviser told reporters.”
In the past, the Saudis were tied to the US at the hip. If the price of oil got to be too high, they’d increase production to drive down the cost. They did that for a number of reasons tied to their own interests. And, we were their biggest customer so they did everything they could to placate and encourage us. Given the historic ties between the Bush family and the Saud family, it took a monumental burn-rate of good will and clout to get to the point where the Saudis wouldn’t at least pay lip service to helping Bush bring down the cost of oil. The Saudis of course have a lot of our bonds and paper, and they’re not excited about watching their dollar holdings decrease exponentially in value while we energize the Islamic Brotherhood and its various off-shoots like al Qaeda and position ourselves as the second coming of Godfrey of Bullion and Richard, Couer de Lion. We started to burn through our leverage about the time that Cheney developed an energy policy that was basically “Make more money for the oil companies!” Our leverage really increased on Saudi Arabia and other Arab countries on 911 through the removal of the Taliban from power. Then came Iraq, the failure to get bin Laden, the various levels of antics in Pakistan, and the realization that Twitshit not only had no clothes, he had no sense at all. Babbling about freedom and democracy to autocratic despots -- the House of Saud, Syria, the various Sheiks, Caliphs, and so on in the Gulf -- the crumbling of the dollar, the strengthening of Iran's moral standing by threats and absurdity, and here we are... The only card Bush has to play with the Saudis is “ I need you to do this if you want to keep a Republican in the White House.” The Saudis say “Oh, really? And why would we want to do that again? Inishallah…Salaam ali Tae kum.” Bush has no leverage. The Saudis have the leverage and they may not be able to vote in the US elections but they are doing the next best thing. They do not want four more years of George Bush...and are making it very clear.
I’m not sanguine about anything, and I stopped being amazed a while back at the ability of people to not only ignore the common good but also to undermine their own personal interest. Our union could be dumb enough to strike; the Saudis could figure that they don’t need us with China and India buying all the oil they can get. But, I wouldn’t be at all surprised if the contract is ratified as is, the union withdraws the request to let those “special” people bargain separately, and we find that the Saudis start increasing production the morning of the first Wednesday after the first Tuesday in November. Why? Because the only leverage they have with us is their ability to work with us – they may be well disposed toward whomever is elected or not so well disposed. But, they do know that if they want to depend on the US to keep their asses on the throne of their Kingdom, they have to keep our needs in mind. Or, of course, something else may happen. Regardless, our leverage with these people lie in the possibilities of the future, and their leverage with us lies in the immediacy of the present. Short term, we're screwed...long term, we're all screwed.

























Recent Comments